Exercise 1: Fermi-izing a Real Prediction — Possible Solution
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This exercise has no single correct prediction to analyze - the point
is applying the technique honestly to something real. A worked
example, using "will my team win this weekend's match":

ORIGINAL QUESTION (hard to estimate directly): "What's the probability
my team wins this weekend?"

FERMI-IZED SUB-QUESTIONS:

1. What's the probability our star player, who's been carrying an
   injury, is actually fit to start? (A concrete, checkable fact -
   team news is usually published before the match.)

2. Given that player's actual availability, what's our team's real
   recent form (e.g. results in the last five matches) against
   opponents of similar quality to this weekend's?

3. What's the specific home/away context (are we playing at home,
   where our team has historically performed better)?

Each of these three sub-questions is genuinely easier to estimate on
its own than the original all-at-once question, since each draws on a
specific, checkable piece of information rather than requiring an
intuitive gut estimate for the whole match at once. Combining honest
answers to all three gives a more grounded final estimate than jumping
straight to a single overall percentage.

ANSWER: (worked example) Original: "Will my team win?" Fermi-ized into:
(1) will the key injured player actually start, (2) what's recent form
against similarly-ranked opponents, (3) home or away context - each
sub-question is more directly checkable than guessing the final
outcome all at once.

WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER
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This applies the chapter's own real Fermi-izing technique to a genuine
prediction, breaking it into concretely checkable sub-questions rather
than restating the original question in different words.