Exercise 2: The Sprint's Own ADR Threshold — Possible Solution ==================================================================== METHOD ------------------------------ Using the chapter's own formula (identical to Chapter 8's own derivation): ADR_COST + wrong_prob*risk_reduction*R = wrong_prob*R, solved for R. RESULT ------------------------------ Crossover reversal-cost threshold: 13.33 hours CHECKING AGAINST THIS SPRINT'S OWN TWO REAL DECISIONS ------------------------------ reversal_cost=40 (schema decision): with_adr=8.00, without_adr=12.00 -> ADR better reversal_cost=20: with_adr=5.00, without_adr=6.00 -> ADR better reversal_cost=13.33 (the threshold): with_adr=4.00, without_adr=4.00 -> break-even reversal_cost=5: with_adr=2.75, without_adr=1.50 -> no ADR better reversal_cost=1 (HTTP status decision): with_adr=2.15, without_adr=0.30 -> no ADR better Both of this sprint's own real decisions land cleanly on the correct side of the 13.33-hour threshold: the 40-hour schema decision is well above it (ADR clearly worthwhile), and the 1-hour HTTP status decision is far below it (ADR clearly not worthwhile). WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ This confirms the threshold from Chapter 8's own Exercise 1 isn't just an abstract number - it correctly sorts this specific sprint's own two real decisions into the right buckets without needing separate judgment calls for each. A team could apply this exact threshold mechanically during sprint planning ("would reversing this cost more than about 13 hours of work?") to decide, in seconds, whether a given decision deserves an ADR - turning Chapter 8's own abstract finding into a genuinely usable sprint-planning heuristic.