Chinese Political History II: Chapter 5, Exercise 2 — Possible Solution
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TASK
Summarize Dingxin Zhao's argument that performance legitimacy is unstable,
and say what evidence in this chapter would count for or against it.

ARGUMENT
Performance legitimacy rests on concrete promises (growth, stability,
national strength). Because the promises are concrete, failing to meet them
can trigger an immediate political crisis. Zhao links the idea to the
traditional Mandate of Heaven, which also depended on results.

EVIDENCE FOR
- The party's claim is tied to growth of about 10 percent a year for 30
  years; a slowdown removes the main achievement.
- The property-sector crisis and inequality are cited strains.
- Holbig is reported to have noted that growth may no longer be enough to
  produce a high degree of public consent.

EVIDENCE AGAINST
- One review found no strong evidence that performance is the sole or
  principal pillar of legitimacy, so a downturn need not end it.
- The state sector and the party's control of top posts persisted through
  the reform years.
- Data disputes cut both ways: the figures are questioned but a 2025 Fed
  analysis found them close to alternative indicators.

CONCLUSION
The theory predicts a risk, not an outcome. The chapter's evidence does not
settle it.