Chinese Political History II: Chapter 4, Exercise 2 — Possible Solution ======================================================================= TASK Compare the 2002 and 2012 handovers post by post, and explain why the second is treated as more of a precedent, and why one instance does not establish a norm. TABLE Post Jiang -> Hu Hu -> Xi General Secretary Nov 2002 Nov 2012 President Mar 2003 Mar 2013 CMC chair Sep 2004 (Jiang kept Hu gave up all it about two years) positions Nov 2012 WHY THE SECOND IS MORE OF A PRECEDENT In 2002 the outgoing leader kept the military post for two more years, so the handover was staged. In 2012, one summary says, Hu stepped down from all his positions, and it calls the departure praiseworthy as a precedent. WHY ONE INSTANCE DOES NOT ESTABLISH A NORM A norm needs repetition and expectation. One complete retirement, at the end of the period, is not enough to show that the next leader would do the same. The sources also do not describe any rule requiring it. POINT Say "a precedent was set in 2012," not "the rule was that leaders retire fully." Chapters 6 and 7 test whether it held.