Exercise 1: Descriptive/Model-Based or Inferential? — Possible Solution ==================================================================== (A) COMPUTING THE AVERAGE OF 50 MEASURED RESPONSE TIMES — DESCRIPTIVE (FUNDAMENTALS) ------------------------------ This is a plain summary computed directly from data already in hand - exactly Probability & Statistics Fundamentals' own Chapter 9 material. No claim is being made about anything beyond these 50 specific measurements. (B) CLAIMING THE TRUE AVERAGE ACROSS ALL FUTURE REQUESTS LIKELY FALLS BETWEEN 190MS AND 210MS — INFERENTIAL (THIS COURSE) ------------------------------ This extends beyond the 50 measurements actually collected to make a quantified claim about the true, unobserved population of ALL future requests - exactly this chapter's own inferential direction, and specifically the shape of a confidence interval (this course's own Chapter 3). (C) A KNOWN FAIR COIN, PROBABILITY OF 3 HEADS IN 5 FLIPS — PROBABILITY (FUNDAMENTALS) ------------------------------ The model (a fair coin) is already fully known and given; the question reasons forward from that known model to a predicted outcome - exactly Probability & Statistics Fundamentals' own probability direction, not inference from limited data at all. (D) DECIDING WHETHER A 2% LIFT IN A 2-WEEK EXPERIMENT IS REAL OR NOISE — INFERENTIAL (THIS COURSE) ------------------------------ This is precisely a hypothesis-testing / A-B-testing question - using limited experimental data to draw a confident conclusion about whether a genuine underlying effect exists, rather than simply describing the 2-week sample's own numbers. Exactly this course's own Chapters 4-6. WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ Each classification is made by checking whether the reasoning stays confined to describing the data already collected (descriptive, or probability's forward reasoning from an already-known model) or extends beyond that limited data to a confident claim about an unobserved population (inferential), per this chapter's own descriptive-vs-inferential distinction.