Exercise 1: A Different Historical Baseline — Possible Solution ==================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ 45 conversions out of 500 sessions STEP 1: THE POINT ESTIMATE ------------------------------ p = 45 / 500 = 0.09 (9%) STEP 2: THE STANDARD ERROR ------------------------------ SE = sqrt(p(1-p)/n) = sqrt(0.09 x 0.91 / 500) = sqrt(0.0819/500) ~= 0.01280 STEP 3: THE 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ------------------------------ CI = p +/- 1.96 x SE = 0.09 +/- 1.96(0.01280) = 0.09 +/- 0.02509 CI = [0.0649, 0.1151] (approximately 6.5% to 11.5%) WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The point estimate and its confidence interval are computed using exactly this chapter's own Steps 1-2 method - treating the historical count as a sample proportion, computing its standard error, and building the interval around it - applied to the new baseline figures rather than the chapter's own original 8% example.