Exercise 1: A Latency Probability, Estimated and Then Computed Precisely — Possible Solution ==================================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ mu = 150ms, sigma = 20ms, x = 110ms STEP 1: THE Z-SCORE ------------------------------ z = (x - mu) / sigma = (110 - 150) / 20 = -40/20 = -2 STEP 2: THE EMPIRICAL RULE ESTIMATE ------------------------------ Per this chapter's own empirical rule, about 95% of values fall within 2 standard deviations of the mean, leaving about 5% outside that range, split evenly between the two tails - about 2.5% below -2 standard deviations (110ms) and about 2.5% above +2 standard deviations (190ms). Empirical rule estimate: P(X < 110ms) ~= 2.5% STEP 3: THE PRECISE VALUE ------------------------------ Using the standard normal CDF at z = -2: P(X < 110ms) = standard_normal_cdf(-2) ~= 0.02275 (2.275%) STEP 4: COMPARING THE TWO ------------------------------ The empirical rule's quick estimate (2.5%) and the precise calculation (2.275%) are close, differing by only about a quarter of a percentage point - exactly the same small gap this chapter's own worked response- time example showed at the equivalent z=2 point. The empirical rule is a genuinely useful fast approximation, not merely a rough guess. WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The z-score is computed directly from this chapter's own formula, the empirical rule is applied correctly by recognizing 110ms sits exactly 2 standard deviations below the mean, and the precise value is computed via the standard normal CDF and explicitly compared back to the estimate rather than reported in isolation.