Exercise 2: A Signup Flow's Conversion Probability, Mean & Variance — Possible Solution ==================================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ n = 8, k = 2, p = 0.15 STEP 1: P(EXACTLY 2 CONVERT) ------------------------------ C(8, 2) = (8 x 7) / (2 x 1) = 28 p^2 = 0.15^2 = 0.0225 (1-p)^(8-2) = 0.85^6 ~= 0.377 P(X=2) = 28 x 0.0225 x 0.377 ~= 0.2376 (about 23.76%) STEP 2: E[X] ------------------------------ E[X] = n x p = 8 x 0.15 = 1.2 The expected number of conversions out of 8 visitors is 1.2. STEP 3: Var(X) ------------------------------ Var(X) = n x p x (1-p) = 8 x 0.15 x 0.85 = 1.02 WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The exact-count probability is computed using this chapter's own full binomial formula with each term shown, while the mean and variance are computed using this chapter's own faster np and np(1-p) shortcuts rather than repeating Chapter 5's full sum-over-every-outcome calculation, matching the chapter's own worked A/B-test example's approach exactly.