Exercise 1: Expected Monthly Signups — Possible Solution ==================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ P(X=100) = 0.5 P(X=200) = 0.3 P(X=500) = 0.2 STEP 1: CONFIRMING A VALID DISTRIBUTION ------------------------------ 0.5 + 0.3 + 0.2 = 1.0 The probabilities sum to exactly 1, confirming this is a valid distribution per this chapter's own requirement (and Chapter 2's own certainty axiom). STEP 2: COMPUTING E[X] ------------------------------ E[X] = (100)(0.5) + (200)(0.3) + (500)(0.2) = 50 + 60 + 100 = 210 The expected number of monthly signups is 210. WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The distribution is validated first per this chapter's own requirement that the probabilities sum to 1, and the expected value is computed by directly applying this chapter's own formula - summing each outcome multiplied by its own probability - rather than simply averaging the three raw values without weighting them by probability.