Exercise 3: Mobile Users and Checkout Completion — Possible Solution ==================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ P(mobile) = 0.6 P(checkout) = 0.1 P(mobile and checkout) = 0.03 STEP 1: P(checkout | mobile) ------------------------------ Per this chapter's own conditional probability formula: P(checkout | mobile) = P(mobile and checkout) / P(mobile) = 0.03 / 0.6 = 0.05 (5%) STEP 2: COMPARING TO THE OVERALL P(checkout) ------------------------------ P(checkout | mobile) = 5% P(checkout) overall = 10% Since 5% is LESS than the overall 10% checkout rate, mobile users are LESS likely than average to complete checkout - conditioning on "mobile" genuinely lowers the probability compared to the unconditioned baseline. STEP 3: THE INDEPENDENCE TEST ------------------------------ P(mobile) x P(checkout) = 0.6 x 0.1 = 0.06 P(mobile and checkout) = 0.03 Since 0.06 does not equal 0.03, per this chapter's own multiplication- rule test, "on mobile" and "completes checkout" are NOT independent - they are dependent events. Being on mobile measurably changes the probability of completing checkout (and specifically lowers it), which is exactly what Step 2's direct comparison already showed from a different angle. WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The conditional probability is computed directly from this chapter's own formula, compared explicitly against the unconditioned baseline to draw a concrete practical conclusion (mobile users convert less), and the independence test is applied as a second, independent confirmation that these two events are genuinely related rather than coincidentally appearing related.