Exercise 2: Four Independent Retry Attempts at 80% Success — Possible Solution ==================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ 4 independent attempts, each succeeding with probability 0.8 (failure probability 0.2 per attempt). STEP 1: PROBABILITY ALL 4 ATTEMPTS FAIL ------------------------------ Per this chapter's own multiplication rule for independent events, generalized to 4 events: P(all 4 fail) = 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 = 0.2^4 = 0.0016 (0.16%) STEP 2: PROBABILITY AT LEAST ONE SUCCEEDS ------------------------------ "At least one succeeds" is exactly the complement of "all fail," per Chapter 2's own complement rule: P(at least one succeeds) = 1 - P(all fail) = 1 - 0.0016 = 0.9984 (99.84%) WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ The all-fail probability is computed by directly multiplying the four independent per-attempt failure probabilities together, per this chapter's own multiplication rule, and the at-least-one-success probability is derived from it using Chapter 2's own complement rule rather than being computed as a separate, harder calculation from scratch.