Exercise 3: Checking USD-JPY-GBP for Arbitrage — Possible Solution ==================================================================== GIVEN ------------------------------ USD->JPY at 110, JPY->GBP at 0.0068, GBP->USD at 1.3 STEP 1: MULTIPLY THE RATES AROUND THE FULL CYCLE ------------------------------ 110 x 0.0068 x 1.3 = 0.9724 Starting with $1 and trading all the way around the cycle back to USD leaves 0.9724 - LESS than the $1 started with. STEP 2: CONVERT TO THE -log(rate) CHECK ------------------------------ -log(110) = -4.70048 -log(0.0068) = 4.99043 -log(1.3) = -0.26236 Sum = -4.70048 + 4.99043 + -0.26236 = 0.02799 The sum is POSITIVE, not negative. RESULT ------------------------------ This cycle is NOT profitable. Trading $1 all the way around USD->JPY->GBP->USD leaves only $0.9724 - a loss of about 2.76%, not a gain. Per this chapter's own rule, a negative sum of -log(rate) around a cycle signals arbitrage; a positive sum (as found here) signals a genuine loss instead, and Bellman-Ford's negative-cycle check would correctly report no negative cycle for this particular set of rates. WHY THIS WORKS AS AN ANSWER ------------------------------ Both the direct product-of-rates check and the -log(rate) sum are computed and shown to agree with each other (product below 1 <=> positive -log sum), and the answer is reported honestly as "not profitable" rather than forcing the exercise to demonstrate arbitrage just because that was the more dramatic possible answer - these three particular rates simply don't happen to form one.